When Bush Rolls the Dice I predict Snake Eyes

by Jim Moore

03/10/2003

If President Bush pulls off his latest "high-risk gamble" he'll be a craftier illusionist than David Copperfield. And that he's not. So when the two dice stop rolling I predict we'll see only one spot on each cube. Craps.

Bush's big gamble, as described by Ron Hutcheson of Knight Ridder Tribune, is this: A friendly Iraq, the spread of democracy throughout the Middle East, and creation of a Palestinian state that lives in harmony with Israel. 

All of which, Hutcheson says, could do one of two things: "remake the Middle East in America's image, or trigger an explosion of violence, chaos and terrorism that shakes the world, shocks the economy, and destroys his presidency."

That's the magic that Bush will have to perform to make the gamble pay off, and in my opinion, there's about as much chance of that illusion becoming reality as there is in the sun coming up in the west.

Even a cursory look at each part of that gamble suggests a mountain too high to climb. And a closer examination turns the gamble into an unfunny joke. Considering that the joke will be on us, the president's game of chance is an inappropriate, if not downright dangerous crap shoot, since America's future is on the table.

For better or worse, the big gamble overseas is inescapably locked into conditions here at home.

THE IRAQ GAMBLE. A quick, decisive victory in Iraq could give Bush's popularity a boost and make it easier for him to get more tax cuts, a prescription drug subsidy for seniors, and a policy change that lets younger workers shift some of the Social Security taxes to the stock market. That's the upside. Improbable at best.

The more likely downside is that it will ignite a tidal wave of terrorism both here and over there, spike oil prices at ridiculous heights, and kick off an unstableness in the region that could explode into World War III at the slightest provocation

Snake eyes on that roll of the dice.

THE DEMOCRACY GAMBLE.. For the Bush administration to assume that most Middle East countries want, need, will accept, or even understand what democracy is all about, is failing a grammar school history test. The "democratizing" that Bush visualizes for Middle East nations comes off to the natives as "Americanizing", and we already have amble evidence of what Middle Easterners think of America.

Moreover, trying to push the "one person-one vote" idea in a region that for centuries has known nothing but sheikhs, potentates, sultans, khans, emirs, and feudal lords tells us that the Bush administration is willing to risk American lives--indeed, the welfare of the nation itself--on a brash, political shake of the dice. And that, I believe, is irresponsibly naive at best, and dangerously delusional at worst. 

Snake eyes on that roll, too

THE MIDDLE EAST GAMBLE.

"This is the biggest gamble any president has taken in my lifetime," says John Hulsman, a foreign policy specialist at the Heritage Foundation. "This is about so much more than Iraq. It's about America's place in the world. The ordering of the world is up for grabs." 

That may be true, but what "ordering of the world" actually has to do with America's place in that world escapes this writer. Especially when military casualties will be a tragic byproduct. 

That's not all. Wading deeper into the Middle East poison pit will have other drastic consequences. Riled up Islamic fundamentalists could take power by bullets instead of ballots. A trapped Saddam Hussein might use chemical or biological weapons against Israel. 

In which case, nothing in the world could restrain the war nut Ariel Sharon, and he would hit back immediately. That would ignite Arab anger and the whole region could quickly become a Middle East Armageddon. 

In any case, expecting the Jews and Arabs to resolve their differences, with the U.S. in or out of Iraq, is the ultimate in self-deception. And forcing us into war to try to consummate this marriage made in hell is the grossest kind of presidential abuse of power. 

But Bush doesn't see it that way. In a recent news conference, he said, "I know we will prevail. And out of that disarmament of Saddam will come a better world."

Made in my image, he should have added.


Jim Moore
Jmoore1819@aol.com